#EleNão: Female Autonomy and Far-Right Populist Candidacy in Brazil’s 2010–2022 Presidential Elections
摘要
This study explores the impact of female autonomy and far-right populist candidacy on the gender gap in Brazil’s presidential elections of 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022. The central hypothesis posits that the increase in women’s autonomy, alongside the rise of a far-right populist candidate, contributed to a shift in female electoral behavior, moving away from conservative voting patterns and fostering greater political participation. Using data from the Brazilian Electoral Study (ESEB), we modeled variables such as gender, labor market participation, education level, and marital status to assess their influence on the likelihood of voting for conservative candidates. The analysis reveals that although no significant differences appear in electoral turnout between men and women, women with higher education levels are less inclined to vote for conservative candidates and have been since 2018 in particular. However, women’s labor market participation in 2010 showed an unexpected correlation with conservative voting, particularly against Dilma Rousseff. These findings suggest that female autonomy—measured through labor market participation and unmarried status—alone does not necessarily alter political preferences. Rather, the presence of a far-right populist candidate since 2018 seems to have played a critical role in shaping female voting behavior in recent elections.