Women’s Electoral Behavior Under Conditions of Democratic Erosion: Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala
摘要
This chapter offers the first detailed study of women’s political behavior in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Nicaragua. We utilize data from the Latin American Public Opinion Project (hereafter LAPOP) from 2004 to 2023 to investigate the gender gap according to turnout, ideology, support for populist authoritarians, and support for female candidates. We find that the gender gap in voter turnout has disappeared over time, and in all three countries, women now vote in presidential elections at the same rate as that of men. When we analyzed the gender gap in support for female candidates, we found that women registered significantly higher evaluations for Vice-President Rosario Murillo in Nicaragua but were not more likely to vote for presidential candidate Sandra Torres in Guatemala. When we examined support for populist authoritarian presidents, we again found mixed results: In Nicaragua, women showed significantly higher support for President Daniel Ortega, although that support has diminished since Ortega unleashed repression against antigovernment protestors in 2018. In El Salvador, women were less likely to support Nayib Bukele as a candidate in 2019, but the gender gap in support disappeared by 2023. Our analysis of the ideological gap suggests connecting women’s vote with the left (or the right) is not easy in contexts in which democratic backsliding is occurring, as is the case in these three countries.