Financial markets rarely behave uniformly over time, instead exhibiting periods of different market conditions. These structural shifts pose significant challenges for traditional forecasting models, particularly due to heteroskedasticity and non-linearity. While market regime frameworks seek to address this complexity, many existing approaches are constrained by univariate inputs, rigid transitions, or lack predictive capability. This paper proposes a two-phase framework that overcomes these limitations by integrating unsupervised and supervised machine learning techniques. In the first phase, a Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) is used to detect latent market regimes from a rich set of macro-financial indicators, capturing overlapping probabilistic states with interpretable economic characteristics. We identify six distinct regimes—including high-inflation, crisis, and expansionary environments—each associated with unique risk-return profiles. In the second phase, we train an XGBoost-based Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) classifier on historical regime labels to forecast future regime states. The predictive model achieves high out-of-sample classification accuracy (92.2%) and outperforms the market in a simple long-short trading strategy based on anticipated regime shifts.

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Multivariate Regime Identification and Prediction in Financial Markets via Gaussian Mixture and Gradient Boosting Methods

  • Álvaro Sánchez-Fernández,
  • Javier Díez-González,
  • Naamán Huerga-Pérez,
  • Hilde Perez

摘要

Financial markets rarely behave uniformly over time, instead exhibiting periods of different market conditions. These structural shifts pose significant challenges for traditional forecasting models, particularly due to heteroskedasticity and non-linearity. While market regime frameworks seek to address this complexity, many existing approaches are constrained by univariate inputs, rigid transitions, or lack predictive capability. This paper proposes a two-phase framework that overcomes these limitations by integrating unsupervised and supervised machine learning techniques. In the first phase, a Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) is used to detect latent market regimes from a rich set of macro-financial indicators, capturing overlapping probabilistic states with interpretable economic characteristics. We identify six distinct regimes—including high-inflation, crisis, and expansionary environments—each associated with unique risk-return profiles. In the second phase, we train an XGBoost-based Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) classifier on historical regime labels to forecast future regime states. The predictive model achieves high out-of-sample classification accuracy (92.2%) and outperforms the market in a simple long-short trading strategy based on anticipated regime shifts.