A Stochastic Post-disaster Recovery Model for the Healthcare Urban Community of Naples, Italy
摘要
The continuity of healthcare services following a natural disaster presents a significant global challenge, particularly in earthquake-prone regions like Italy. In the immediate aftermath of a seismic event, when urban areas have suffered loss of functionality, restoring the original efficiency of hospital infrastructures, i.e., healthcare urban communities (HUCs), is undoubtedly of paramount importance among various city functions that require recovery. In fact, within the framework of the Emergency Limit Condition of the Italian Civil Protection Department, hospitals fill the role of strategic buildings for urban strategic functions. In this study, a probabilistic methodology to assist decision-makers in managing post-disaster policies is proposed and applied to the HUC of Naples. Recovery time of healthcare buildings is probabilistically assessed in a densely populated urban area, namely the city of Naples, Italy. Then, a reconstruction prioritization analysis is carried out by incorporating the reconstruction time, as well as stake- holder input and political management efficiency. Analysis results show that when decision-makers prioritize cost savings, it is crucial to focus on healthcare facilities with lower catchment area and better access to major road networks. By contrast, if the primary concern is to enhance UC’s efficiency in terms of service area, priority should be given to larger facilities, which may require longer recovery time.