This chapter traces the evolution of risk management models in international climate change adaptation governance, focusing on the United Nations and the European Union. It identifies six generations of risk models, showing how they have shifted from scenario-based assessments to iterative, resilience-based, and transformative frameworks. Risk models have enabled structured, evidence-based adaptation planning, helping policymakers manage uncertainty and allocate resources. Yet, drawing on critical scholarship, the chapter also highlights how these models can obscure political contestation, marginalise justice concerns, and privilege technocratic solutions. While the United Nations and European Union have institutionalised risk governance differently, both now emphasise systemic and transboundary climate risks. As adaptation becomes central to global governance, a seventh generation of risk models may be emerging—one that must reconcile the benefits of risk-based approaches with their limitations. The chapter calls for more pluralistic, reflexive, and justice-aware models to guide adaptation in a world of cascading climate crises.

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International Climate Change Adaptation Governance: The Evolution of Risk Management Models

  • Mark Rhinard,
  • Claudia Morsut

摘要

This chapter traces the evolution of risk management models in international climate change adaptation governance, focusing on the United Nations and the European Union. It identifies six generations of risk models, showing how they have shifted from scenario-based assessments to iterative, resilience-based, and transformative frameworks. Risk models have enabled structured, evidence-based adaptation planning, helping policymakers manage uncertainty and allocate resources. Yet, drawing on critical scholarship, the chapter also highlights how these models can obscure political contestation, marginalise justice concerns, and privilege technocratic solutions. While the United Nations and European Union have institutionalised risk governance differently, both now emphasise systemic and transboundary climate risks. As adaptation becomes central to global governance, a seventh generation of risk models may be emerging—one that must reconcile the benefits of risk-based approaches with their limitations. The chapter calls for more pluralistic, reflexive, and justice-aware models to guide adaptation in a world of cascading climate crises.