Many carbon and biodiversity-rich ecosystems, including tropical forests, are threatened by agricultural expansion, unsustainable forestry, and urban sprawl. At the same time, these ecosystems are important pools of genetic diversity, bionic inspiration, and knowledge for technological innovation. Bioeconomy has recently been proposed as a promising new forest-preserving development paradigm for such regions. Similar proposals have been put forward over three decades ago, resulting in a considerable amount of research on the development of local economies based on non-timber forest products (NTFPs). Here, we revisit key insights from this literature and ask whether and to what extent technological and institutional innovations over the last 30 years have changed the rules of the game in favor of bioeconomy-enhanced sustainable development in the tropics. We use the Brazilian Amazon as an example to illustrate and discuss conditions under which promising pathways become more likely. We find that many of the potential stumbling blocks identified in the NTFP literature continue to limit the scalability of successful local initiatives and warn against potential sustainability risks associated with some recent bioeconomic developments in the region. However, we also identify conditions under which bio-based innovation processes are more likely to thrive today than in the past.