Climate-induced migrationMigration has emerged as a critical consequence of environmentalEnvironmental changesChange, particularly in vulnerableVulnerable coastalCoastal regions like the Indian SundarbansSundarbans. This study investigates the multifaceted dimensions of cyclone-induced migration risk by integrating socio-economicSocio-economic, infrastructural, agricultural, and climatic vulnerabilityVulnerability factors. The research is centered on the Pathar PratimaPathar pratima CD Block of South 24 Parganas, West Bengal—a region frequently battered by severe cyclonesCyclone such as Aila (2009), AmphanAmphan (2020), and Yaas (2021). Utilizing a composite index methodology based on the IPCCIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 framework, the study incorporates 28 indicators categorized under exposure, sensitivityCapacity, adaptive capacityAdaptive capacity, infrastructureInfrastructure availability, and agricultural vulnerabilityVulnerability. Through spatial analysis in ArcGIS, migrationMigration risk zonesZone were mapped, revealing that approximately 60% of villagesVillage fall under moderate to very high migrationMigration risk, especially those near the coastline. The findings demonstrate that cycloneCyclone frequency, saline water inundation, low adaptive capacity, and poor infrastructureInfrastructure collectively escalate migrationMigration risksRisks. Case studies of three villages—GobardhanpurGobardhanpur (coastal), Kuemuri (riverine), and Purna ChandipurInland (inland)—corroborate the model’s validity, showing higher migration rates in coastalCoastal areas due to recurrent cyclonicCyclonic shocks and agrarian distress. Significant positive correlations were found between migrationMigration risk and variables like livelihood crises and exposure, while adaptive capacityAdaptive capacity and infrastructure availability were negatively correlated. The study further underscores the notion of “trapped populations” who are unable to migrateMigrate despite high vulnerabilityVulnerability, due to socio-economicSocio-economic constraints. This research offers a robust methodological framework to assess and spatially map cyclone-induced migration risk. It provides actionable insights for policymakers, planners, and NGOs aiming to develop resilienceResilience strategies for climate-vulnerableVulnerable populations. Ultimately, it emphasizes the urgent need to address the intertwined vulnerabilities to mitigate forced displacementDisplacement and enhance adaptive capacityCapacity in the face of escalating climateClimate threats.

Cyclone-Induced Coastal Vulnerability and Human Migration Risk in Sundarbans

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发表日期：

2025年

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Pintu Mandal,
Suman Paul

摘要

Climate-induced migrationMigration has emerged as a critical consequence of environmentalEnvironmental changesChange, particularly in vulnerableVulnerable coastalCoastal regions like the Indian SundarbansSundarbans. This study investigates the multifaceted dimensions of cyclone-induced migration risk by integrating socio-economicSocio-economic, infrastructural, agricultural, and climatic vulnerabilityVulnerability factors. The research is centered on the Pathar PratimaPathar pratima CD Block of South 24 Parganas, West Bengal—a region frequently battered by severe cyclonesCyclone such as Aila (2009), AmphanAmphan (2020), and Yaas (2021). Utilizing a composite index methodology based on the IPCCIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 framework, the study incorporates 28 indicators categorized under exposure, sensitivityCapacity, adaptive capacityAdaptive capacity, infrastructureInfrastructure availability, and agricultural vulnerabilityVulnerability. Through spatial analysis in ArcGIS, migrationMigration risk zonesZone were mapped, revealing that approximately 60% of villagesVillage fall under moderate to very high migrationMigration risk, especially those near the coastline. The findings demonstrate that cycloneCyclone frequency, saline water inundation, low adaptive capacity, and poor infrastructureInfrastructure collectively escalate migrationMigration risksRisks. Case studies of three villages—GobardhanpurGobardhanpur (coastal), Kuemuri (riverine), and Purna ChandipurInland (inland)—corroborate the model’s validity, showing higher migration rates in coastalCoastal areas due to recurrent cyclonicCyclonic shocks and agrarian distress. Significant positive correlations were found between migrationMigration risk and variables like livelihood crises and exposure, while adaptive capacityAdaptive capacity and infrastructure availability were negatively correlated. The study further underscores the notion of “trapped populations” who are unable to migrateMigrate despite high vulnerabilityVulnerability, due to socio-economicSocio-economic constraints. This research offers a robust methodological framework to assess and spatially map cyclone-induced migration risk. It provides actionable insights for policymakers, planners, and NGOs aiming to develop resilienceResilience strategies for climate-vulnerableVulnerable populations. Ultimately, it emphasizes the urgent need to address the intertwined vulnerabilities to mitigate forced displacementDisplacement and enhance adaptive capacityCapacity in the face of escalating climateClimate threats.