The growing deployment of artificial intelligence in critical domains exposes a pressing challenge: how reliably models make predictions for ambiguous data without exhibiting overconfidence. We introduce hubris benchmarking, a methodology to evaluate overconfidence in machine learning models. The benchmark is based on a novel architecture, ambiguous generative adversarial networks (AmbiGANs), which are trained to synthesize realistic yet ambiguous datasets. We also propose the hubris metric to quantitatively measure the extent of model overconfidence when faced with these ambiguous images. We illustrate the usage of the methodology by estimating the hubris of state-of-the-art pre-trained models (ConvNext and ViT) on binarized versions of public datasets, including MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, and Pneumonia Chest X-ray. We found that, while ConvNext is on average 3% more accurate than ViT, it often makes excessively confident predictions, on average by 10% points higher than ViT. These results illustrate the usefulness of hubris benchmarking in high-stakes decision processes.

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Hubris Benchmarking with AmbiGANs: Assessing Model Overconfidence with Synthetic Ambiguous Data

  • Cátia Teixeira,
  • Inês Gomes,
  • Carlos Soares,
  • Jan N. van Rijn

摘要

The growing deployment of artificial intelligence in critical domains exposes a pressing challenge: how reliably models make predictions for ambiguous data without exhibiting overconfidence. We introduce hubris benchmarking, a methodology to evaluate overconfidence in machine learning models. The benchmark is based on a novel architecture, ambiguous generative adversarial networks (AmbiGANs), which are trained to synthesize realistic yet ambiguous datasets. We also propose the hubris metric to quantitatively measure the extent of model overconfidence when faced with these ambiguous images. We illustrate the usage of the methodology by estimating the hubris of state-of-the-art pre-trained models (ConvNext and ViT) on binarized versions of public datasets, including MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, and Pneumonia Chest X-ray. We found that, while ConvNext is on average 3% more accurate than ViT, it often makes excessively confident predictions, on average by 10% points higher than ViT. These results illustrate the usefulness of hubris benchmarking in high-stakes decision processes.