Effective candidate selection is essential for political parties to keep public trust and enhance their electoral outcomes. Traditionally, the distribution of election tickets is based on subjective evaluations and historical performance from the last five years, which often leads to bias and inaccuracies in the selection process. This article examines the enhancement of election ticket distribution via a more objective, data-driven methodology applying machine learning techniques. The research presents a predictive model that combines numerous data sources, covering demographic profiles, historical election results, constituency characteristics, party records, and real-time public sentiment gathered from social media, news articles, and opinion polls. The method calls for employing supervised machine learning algorithms like Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Classification to predict how well candidates will do and how effectively tickets will be distributed. Ensemble methods and sentiment analysis are used to make predictions more accurate and flexible. A damage control module is built to assess the possible adverse effects of scandals, controversies, or shifting voter's view on a candidate's prospects. Experimental results demonstrate that Random Forest model was able to predict successful ticket allocations with accuracy of 99.5%, whereas Gradient Boosting model was able to do so with an accuracy of 99.26%. The findings demonstrate that machine learning-driven candidate selection can drastically optimize ticket distribution tactics and safeguard assets for political organizations. The proposed system offers a vital decision-support tool that may enhance campaign planning and boost the overall efficacy of political strategies in competitive electoral environments.

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Optimizing Candidate Selection: Machine Learning for Predicting Election Ticket Allocation and Damage Control

  • Shailendra Choudhary,
  • Ratnesh Litoriya,
  • Ankita Chourasia

摘要

Effective candidate selection is essential for political parties to keep public trust and enhance their electoral outcomes. Traditionally, the distribution of election tickets is based on subjective evaluations and historical performance from the last five years, which often leads to bias and inaccuracies in the selection process. This article examines the enhancement of election ticket distribution via a more objective, data-driven methodology applying machine learning techniques. The research presents a predictive model that combines numerous data sources, covering demographic profiles, historical election results, constituency characteristics, party records, and real-time public sentiment gathered from social media, news articles, and opinion polls. The method calls for employing supervised machine learning algorithms like Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Classification to predict how well candidates will do and how effectively tickets will be distributed. Ensemble methods and sentiment analysis are used to make predictions more accurate and flexible. A damage control module is built to assess the possible adverse effects of scandals, controversies, or shifting voter's view on a candidate's prospects. Experimental results demonstrate that Random Forest model was able to predict successful ticket allocations with accuracy of 99.5%, whereas Gradient Boosting model was able to do so with an accuracy of 99.26%. The findings demonstrate that machine learning-driven candidate selection can drastically optimize ticket distribution tactics and safeguard assets for political organizations. The proposed system offers a vital decision-support tool that may enhance campaign planning and boost the overall efficacy of political strategies in competitive electoral environments.