Extreme phenomena connected with climate change such as flooding, wildfires, air pollution, infectious diseases and reduced food production exert a lot of pressure on human health and national healthcare systems. Allocation of healthcare resources in this chapter concerns personnel, hospital beds and advanced equipment. Such an allocation must presently include the negative effects of climate change. To solve the allocation problem we develop a System-of-Systems hierarchical model of national healthcare and then propose a life expectancy proxy as a performance measure. This framework in conjunction with a set of empirical constraints and nonlinear programming leads to an optimal allocation. Several scenarios of climate impacts are examined and additional resources are found to compensate for the burden of climate change. Several case studies illustrate the practical uses of the proposed methodology. It turns out that the necessary healthcare budget grows nonlinearly with respect to impacts affecting lower income countries disproportionately.

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A System-of-Systems Model of National Healthcare Under Climate Change

  • Yannis A. Phillis,
  • Vassilis S. Kouikoglou

摘要

Extreme phenomena connected with climate change such as flooding, wildfires, air pollution, infectious diseases and reduced food production exert a lot of pressure on human health and national healthcare systems. Allocation of healthcare resources in this chapter concerns personnel, hospital beds and advanced equipment. Such an allocation must presently include the negative effects of climate change. To solve the allocation problem we develop a System-of-Systems hierarchical model of national healthcare and then propose a life expectancy proxy as a performance measure. This framework in conjunction with a set of empirical constraints and nonlinear programming leads to an optimal allocation. Several scenarios of climate impacts are examined and additional resources are found to compensate for the burden of climate change. Several case studies illustrate the practical uses of the proposed methodology. It turns out that the necessary healthcare budget grows nonlinearly with respect to impacts affecting lower income countries disproportionately.