Conformalized Causal Learning for Uncertainty-Aware Mineral Prospectivity Mapping
摘要
Uncertainty quantification and causal reasoning remain key challenges in deep learning for geospatial optimization. Traditional models for Mineral Prospectivity Mapping (MPM) often lack interpretability, struggle with out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, and yield unreliable uncertainty estimates, leading to inefficient resource allocation and false positives. To address these limitations, this study introduces Conformalized Causal Learning (CCL), a novel deep learning framework that integrates causal feature selection, conformal prediction, and attention-based neural architectures to enhance robustness and trustworthiness. Unlike conventional models that prioritize predictive accuracy alone, CCL incorporates calibrated uncertainty estimation to support confidence-aware decision-making. Experimental evaluations across four diverse geological datasets show that CCL reduces predictive uncertainty by up to 90% while maintaining competitive AUROC scores. The framework consistently outperforms baseline methods in both robustness and interpretability. CCL offers a generalizable solution for high-stakes geospatial applications, including mineral exploration, environmental monitoring, climate modeling, and remote sensing—advancing the development of trustworthy, uncertainty-aware AI.