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Energy is the driving force of the development of society. Therefore, ensuring energy security is extremely important. Currently, Renewable Energy Sources (RES) play an increasingly important role in energy production. Unfortunately, the work of RES is strongly dependent on weather conditions, which makes them unpredictable and susceptible to disruptions. This poses new challenges for us. To meet them, in this paper we propose a novel method of one-day ahead photovoltaic power prediction facilitating weather analysis. We propose introducing a new feature quantized Overall Cloudiness Index daily ( \(qOCI_d\) ). As studies have shown, the use of it allowed for a significant increase in the quality of forecasts generated by a wide range of different models. The results improved in the range from 4.1 to 9.9% compared to the reference.

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On the One-Day Ahead Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting Using Weather Analysis

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Paweł Parczyk,
  • Robert Burduk

摘要

Energy is the driving force of the development of society. Therefore, ensuring energy security is extremely important. Currently, Renewable Energy Sources (RES) play an increasingly important role in energy production. Unfortunately, the work of RES is strongly dependent on weather conditions, which makes them unpredictable and susceptible to disruptions. This poses new challenges for us. To meet them, in this paper we propose a novel method of one-day ahead photovoltaic power prediction facilitating weather analysis. We propose introducing a new feature quantized Overall Cloudiness Index daily ( \(qOCI_d\) ). As studies have shown, the use of it allowed for a significant increase in the quality of forecasts generated by a wide range of different models. The results improved in the range from 4.1 to 9.9% compared to the reference.