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Forecasting production resources and implementing reliable preventive and adaptive measures for effective management of food, energy, water, and social resources in the context of systemic risks, as well as corresponding structural transformations of the economy in the face of global challenges, are complex but extremely important tasks for ensuring sustainable development. To ensure sustainable socio-economic development under the conditions of effective use of production, food, labor, and financial resources, the task of instrumental evaluation of the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine was formulated and solved in the form of a developed model structure of the extended production function. The latter consists of indices of integral indicators with the use of which a quantitative assessment of the effects of the military aggression of the Russian Federation on the socio-economic dynamics of Ukraine was carried out; alternative scenarios were developed, instrumental analysis was carried out and priority trends (innovative-technological, humanitarian) and driver sectors (defense-industrial, agricultural, construction, trade) of the post-war development of the domestic economy were substantiated. On this basis, scenario-based forecasts of macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine were calculated based on the variants of the receipt of external financial aid, respectively Baseline Scenario/EFF and Downside Scenario/EFF (IMF, October 2024), and proposals for the content of the economic policy were substantiated with the determination of priorities for the sustainable development of the Ukrainian economy of for the period until 2027. A special place is given to the main task of the post-war reconstruction of the economy of Ukraine, first of all, the departure from the pre-war raw material-agrarian, import-dependent economy and ensuring its restoration on the foundation of modern achievements of science, high technologies, and a new technological order by types of economic activity, which should become drivers of the recovery of the Ukrainian economy in the nearest prospects (defense-industrial complex, agricultural sector, construction, IT sector, mechanical engineering), ensuring the preservation of human capital, etc.

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Modeling and Forecasting of Structural Development Factors and Priority Types of Economic Activity in Post-war Ukraine

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Valery Heyets,
  • Mariya Skrypnychenko

摘要

Forecasting production resources and implementing reliable preventive and adaptive measures for effective management of food, energy, water, and social resources in the context of systemic risks, as well as corresponding structural transformations of the economy in the face of global challenges, are complex but extremely important tasks for ensuring sustainable development. To ensure sustainable socio-economic development under the conditions of effective use of production, food, labor, and financial resources, the task of instrumental evaluation of the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine was formulated and solved in the form of a developed model structure of the extended production function. The latter consists of indices of integral indicators with the use of which a quantitative assessment of the effects of the military aggression of the Russian Federation on the socio-economic dynamics of Ukraine was carried out; alternative scenarios were developed, instrumental analysis was carried out and priority trends (innovative-technological, humanitarian) and driver sectors (defense-industrial, agricultural, construction, trade) of the post-war development of the domestic economy were substantiated. On this basis, scenario-based forecasts of macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine were calculated based on the variants of the receipt of external financial aid, respectively Baseline Scenario/EFF and Downside Scenario/EFF (IMF, October 2024), and proposals for the content of the economic policy were substantiated with the determination of priorities for the sustainable development of the Ukrainian economy of for the period until 2027. A special place is given to the main task of the post-war reconstruction of the economy of Ukraine, first of all, the departure from the pre-war raw material-agrarian, import-dependent economy and ensuring its restoration on the foundation of modern achievements of science, high technologies, and a new technological order by types of economic activity, which should become drivers of the recovery of the Ukrainian economy in the nearest prospects (defense-industrial complex, agricultural sector, construction, IT sector, mechanical engineering), ensuring the preservation of human capital, etc.