This project was developed to improve the cost estimation process of new products within the Product Development Department of a furniture manufacturer. This work involved developing a methodology using Machine Learning (ML) models trained on products’ existing data to predict the cost of new innovative ones based on similarities and given data. The ML models used were Linear Regression (LR), Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LGBM), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The proposed methodology considers the estimation of the total cost of producing a product, which encompasses both material and operational costs. Throughout this project, several analyses were developed to identify and evaluate different independent variables that could explain the behaviour of these two cost components. The suitability of the different variables was studied by applying several ML models, and a set of functions that return an estimate of the cost as a function of these predictor variables was obtained. The proposed approach, which incorporates ML models into more complex variables to predict, resulted in a 19.29% reduction in estimation error.

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Machine Learning-Based Cost Estimation Approach for Furniture Manufacturing

  • Teresa Pereira,
  • Eduardo e Oliveira,
  • António Amaral,
  • Marisa G. Pereira

摘要

This project was developed to improve the cost estimation process of new products within the Product Development Department of a furniture manufacturer. This work involved developing a methodology using Machine Learning (ML) models trained on products’ existing data to predict the cost of new innovative ones based on similarities and given data. The ML models used were Linear Regression (LR), Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LGBM), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The proposed methodology considers the estimation of the total cost of producing a product, which encompasses both material and operational costs. Throughout this project, several analyses were developed to identify and evaluate different independent variables that could explain the behaviour of these two cost components. The suitability of the different variables was studied by applying several ML models, and a set of functions that return an estimate of the cost as a function of these predictor variables was obtained. The proposed approach, which incorporates ML models into more complex variables to predict, resulted in a 19.29% reduction in estimation error.