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We assess future air quality in Europe, expected from the transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas society, using the comprehensive chemistry transport model ICON-ART. Simulations are conducted based on both present-day emissions and a Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) anthropogenic emission scenario for 2050. For current conditions, we provide the first evaluation of the ICON-ART model with MOZART-T1 chemistry against EMEP measurements across Europe, focusing on ground-level ozone (O \(_{3}\) ) and nitrogen oxides (NO \(_{x}\) ). The model closely matches observed mean levels and the temporal and spatial variability of O \(_{3}\) . However, it slightly underestimates daytime NO \(_{x}\)  levels, as well as the morning peak in summer, though overall agreement with ground-based observations remains strong. For a one-month summer period under current conditions, we found that the maximum daily 8 h mean ozone threshold of 100 µg/m3 was exceeded on at least five days at 45% of monitoring stations. We show that by 2050, under the MFR scenario, this threshold is exceeded only at a single station in Ispra (Po Valley, Italy).

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Simulations of Present and Future Air Quality with ICON-ART

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Corina Keller,
  • Jeroen J. P.  Kuenen,
  • Heike Vogel,
  • Lionel Constantin,
  • Dominik Brunner

摘要

We assess future air quality in Europe, expected from the transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas society, using the comprehensive chemistry transport model ICON-ART. Simulations are conducted based on both present-day emissions and a Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) anthropogenic emission scenario for 2050. For current conditions, we provide the first evaluation of the ICON-ART model with MOZART-T1 chemistry against EMEP measurements across Europe, focusing on ground-level ozone (O \(_{3}\) ) and nitrogen oxides (NO \(_{x}\) ). The model closely matches observed mean levels and the temporal and spatial variability of O \(_{3}\) . However, it slightly underestimates daytime NO \(_{x}\)  levels, as well as the morning peak in summer, though overall agreement with ground-based observations remains strong. For a one-month summer period under current conditions, we found that the maximum daily 8 h mean ozone threshold of 100 µg/m3 was exceeded on at least five days at 45% of monitoring stations. We show that by 2050, under the MFR scenario, this threshold is exceeded only at a single station in Ispra (Po Valley, Italy).