Evaluation of the SILAM Model for Ragweed Prediction in Vojvodina Region
摘要
Ragweed, an invasive species, poses an environmental health threat due to its highly allergenic pollen. The pollen grains of ragweed can induce allergic rhinitis and asthma in sensitized populations, significantly diminishing the quality of life and imposing a substantial economic burden on society. The Vojvodina region (Serbia), located in the southern part of the Pannonian Plain, is one of the main sources of ragweed in Europe. This suggests that the concentration of ragweed in the Vojvodina region is very high. To implement appropriate protective measures, timely informing the population about its concentration is necessary. For predicting ragweed pollen concentration, the potential of the atmospheric dispersion model SILAM was evaluated. Meteorological data for the model were provided using the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model. The results from the SILAM model were compared with the pollen concentrations measured at five stations in the Vojvodina region. The airborne pollen concentrations of ragweed were collected at the roof level using the Hirst-type volumetric method. The model results underestimated measured data at all stations, but the daily cycles of ragweed concentrations predicted by the model are very similar to the measured data.