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The OPS model is used for computing nitrogen concentration and depositions in the Netherlands. We perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model for a single emission source by propagating estimated uncertainties of model parameters. We also look at the total variance of the model as influenced by all parameters and, using the Sobol’ method, estimate the sensitivity to higher order parameter interactions. We find that depletion of the plume can reduce sensitivity to certain parameters at longer distances. Finally, we provide a preliminary assessment of the potential to optimize model parameters and reduce model sensitivity and uncertainty by combining the parameter uncertainties and the model results with real world measurements and reference models.

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Model Sensitivity for Parameter Uncertainties of Ammonia Concentration and Deposition Calculations Due to a Single Source

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Abe Vos,
  • H. A. M. Sterk,
  • C. J. M. Jacobs,
  • W. A. J. van Pul,
  • Ronald Hoogerbrugge

摘要

The OPS model is used for computing nitrogen concentration and depositions in the Netherlands. We perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model for a single emission source by propagating estimated uncertainties of model parameters. We also look at the total variance of the model as influenced by all parameters and, using the Sobol’ method, estimate the sensitivity to higher order parameter interactions. We find that depletion of the plume can reduce sensitivity to certain parameters at longer distances. Finally, we provide a preliminary assessment of the potential to optimize model parameters and reduce model sensitivity and uncertainty by combining the parameter uncertainties and the model results with real world measurements and reference models.