The assessment of the impact of the Strategy for Sustainable Energy Development of the Republic of Bulgaria until 2030 with a horizon of 2050 and the Integrated Energy and Climate Plan of the Republic of Bulgaria 2021–2030 on the air quality is the aim of the present work. The study was performed by the means of computer simulations, using WRF, CMAQ and SMOKE as a set of modelling tools, chosen because of their proved simulation abilities and because the models are validated and tuned for the region. The impact of several emission scenarios was studied. The results of the conducted computer simulations show that the implementation of the emission scenario 2020 and especially 2030 will lead to a significant reduction of ground pollution in the country. The contribution of sources from the energy sector was also estimated and it was found out that for scenarios of years 2020, 2030, it is relatively small. Some interesting effects are detected, however, on the background of these general findings, which are a sound demonstration of the complexity of pathways and processes by which the atmospheric composition is formed. Clarification of these effects can be the goal of future research.

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Some Evaluations of the Impact of the Strategy for Sustainable Energy Development of the Republic of Bulgaria on Air Quality

  • Georgi Gadzhev,
  • Ivelina Georgieva,
  • Vladimir Ivanov,
  • Kostadin Ganev

摘要

The assessment of the impact of the Strategy for Sustainable Energy Development of the Republic of Bulgaria until 2030 with a horizon of 2050 and the Integrated Energy and Climate Plan of the Republic of Bulgaria 2021–2030 on the air quality is the aim of the present work. The study was performed by the means of computer simulations, using WRF, CMAQ and SMOKE as a set of modelling tools, chosen because of their proved simulation abilities and because the models are validated and tuned for the region. The impact of several emission scenarios was studied. The results of the conducted computer simulations show that the implementation of the emission scenario 2020 and especially 2030 will lead to a significant reduction of ground pollution in the country. The contribution of sources from the energy sector was also estimated and it was found out that for scenarios of years 2020, 2030, it is relatively small. Some interesting effects are detected, however, on the background of these general findings, which are a sound demonstration of the complexity of pathways and processes by which the atmospheric composition is formed. Clarification of these effects can be the goal of future research.