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This study describes results from the application of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model’s Integrated Source Apportionment Method (ISAM) tool on a northern hemispheric domain and a U.S.-focused regional modeling domain. These CMAQ ISAM simulations are designed to characterize the air quality impacts of emission changes, to quantify changes in the contributions of anthropogenic versus natural and domestic versus international sources to U.S. air quality, and to assess spatial and temporal variations in these contributions. Results show that the modeled population-weighted peak summertime daily maximum 8-hour ozone mixing ratio averaged over the U.S. decreased from 84 to 72 ppb between 2005 and 2018 and that reductions in mobile source emissions drove a large portion of this decrease. Analysis of ISAM results for aerosols show a decrease in annual mean population-weighted fine particulate mass from 13.8 to 7.7 μg/m3 between 2005 and 2018 over the Eastern U.S. A majority of this decrease was caused by decreases in inorganic secondary aerosol species formed from SO2 and NOx emissions. Overall, these results demonstrate the effectiveness of U.S. emission controls and the increasing importance of large-scale modeling for a process-based understanding of U.S. air quality.

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Quantifying Drivers of Changes in Ozone and Particulate Matter Through Multiscale Source Apportionment Modeling

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Christian Hogrefe,
  • Kristen M. Foley,
  • Sergey L. Napelenok,
  • William T. Hutzell,
  • Benjamin N. Murphy,
  • Havala O. T. Pye,
  • Golam Sarwar,
  • Barron H. Henderson,
  • Rohit Mathur

摘要

This study describes results from the application of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model’s Integrated Source Apportionment Method (ISAM) tool on a northern hemispheric domain and a U.S.-focused regional modeling domain. These CMAQ ISAM simulations are designed to characterize the air quality impacts of emission changes, to quantify changes in the contributions of anthropogenic versus natural and domestic versus international sources to U.S. air quality, and to assess spatial and temporal variations in these contributions. Results show that the modeled population-weighted peak summertime daily maximum 8-hour ozone mixing ratio averaged over the U.S. decreased from 84 to 72 ppb between 2005 and 2018 and that reductions in mobile source emissions drove a large portion of this decrease. Analysis of ISAM results for aerosols show a decrease in annual mean population-weighted fine particulate mass from 13.8 to 7.7 μg/m3 between 2005 and 2018 over the Eastern U.S. A majority of this decrease was caused by decreases in inorganic secondary aerosol species formed from SO2 and NOx emissions. Overall, these results demonstrate the effectiveness of U.S. emission controls and the increasing importance of large-scale modeling for a process-based understanding of U.S. air quality.