Modelling Meteorological Hazards in Inland Waterways
摘要
European inland shipping is facing a series of challenges over the next decades as waterways and their connected land infrastructures are exposed to risks related to climate hazard and decarbonization requirements, while demand for availability and reliability will increase. In the frame of the PLOTO project, mesoscale and microscale models are used to assess exposure of inland waterways and ports to climatic risk, under selected climatic scenarios. Starting from long-term climatic series provided by regional-scale climate models, an analysis of local exposure to climate hazards has been performed, by applying a dynamical downscaling methodology over three case-study areas in mainland Europe: Wallonia, the Budapest port, and the Lower Danube area in Romania. The analysis has led to a quantification of hazards related to drought and flood events, heavy rainfall and ice, as well as intense wind gusts over a period of 100 years. A high-resolution building-resolving Large-Eddy Simulation approach is used to obtain a comprehensive library of representative maps of wind velocity over sensitive infrastructures. At slightly larger scale, a near-real-time forecast system based on the mesoscale model MEMO has been implemented, providing hourly nowcasted fields of wind, temperature and precipitation, as well as next-day forecasts, over the three case study areas. The system makes use of measurement data from terrestrial networks and is integrated in the operational PLOTO platform coupled with a hydrological/soil module, providing real-time alerts of meteorological events. The presented approach strongly supports downscaling modelling studies provided that high-resolution local morphology data is available.