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This chapter discusses some applications of catastrophe theory methods for assessing and predicting the potentially dangerous security level of critical infrastructure objects using Internet of Things technology. The approach to evaluating and forecasting the security level of such objects is described, based on the identification and verification of boundary and potentially catastrophic security states (levels) under gradually increasing changes in external conditions, such as the intensity of incoming computer attack indicators. The analysis highlights the advantages of this approach in improving the reliability of security assessments and forecasts for such objects, ensuring timely risk warnings, and implementing measures to enhance cybersecurity.

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Catastrophe Theory Methods for the Assessment and Prediction of the Security Level in IoT-Based Critical Infrastructure Facilities

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Igor Kotenko,
  • Dmitry Levshun,
  • Igor Parashchuk

摘要

This chapter discusses some applications of catastrophe theory methods for assessing and predicting the potentially dangerous security level of critical infrastructure objects using Internet of Things technology. The approach to evaluating and forecasting the security level of such objects is described, based on the identification and verification of boundary and potentially catastrophic security states (levels) under gradually increasing changes in external conditions, such as the intensity of incoming computer attack indicators. The analysis highlights the advantages of this approach in improving the reliability of security assessments and forecasts for such objects, ensuring timely risk warnings, and implementing measures to enhance cybersecurity.