Conclusions: The State and the Future of European Union Fiscal Governance
摘要
This chapter summarises the findings of the book and outlines limitations and avenues for future research. Firstly, the book has found that, during the seven phases from 1992 to 2025 (establishing, securing, strengthening, questioning, suspending, reforming and overcoming), EU fiscal regulation has witnessed a clash between thirteen fiscal ideas: treaty change, change to secondary legislation, stringency, flexibility, uniformity, differentiation, automaticity, discretion, European imposition, national ownership, constitutionalisation, sub-constitutionalisation and European judicialisation. Secondly, the fiscal ideas have changed the fiscal regulation paradigm. Stringency, uniformity, automaticity, European imposition, constitutionalisation, and European judicialisation strengthened the stability paradigm until the end of the euro crisis. Flexibility emerged after the euro crisis. The 2024 reform of the Stability and Growth Pact marked an incremental but not a paradigmatic change to the EU’s fiscal governance. In 2025, the multiple security threats and the seismic shifts in transatlantic relations under the Trump administration triggered a rethinking of the traditional stability paradigm through multi-level flexibilisation of the rules, but did not replace it with a new security paradigm yet. The red line between all seven phases is that changes to the EU’s fiscal regulation paradigm can be explained mainly by a compromise between Germany and France on competing fiscal ideas, or by the new approach to budgetary discipline of Germany in 2025. In addition, Italy’s inputs in terms of fiscal ideas have contributed to the process of change.