The European Union (EU) faces a deepening crisis marked by political fragmentation and strategic disorientation amid the ongoing Russo–Ukraine War. Diverging national positions—exemplified by the Franco–British push for military escalation and the Hungary–Slovakia bloc’s support for diplomacy—have exposed the limits of EU unity. This chapter critically examines Ukraine’s marginalisation in US-led negotiations and President Macron’s call for a European military initiative as responses to transatlantic dissonance. Despite imposing multiple sanctions on Russia, the EU’s actions reveal a lack of strategic coherence and reflect deeper institutional shortcomings. Its overreliance on sanctions and failure to formulate credible defence and energy policies highlight a broader erosion of geopolitical agency. As internal challenges intensify and US–EU coordination falters, the EU risks being reduced to a subordinate actor within Western alliances. The chapter argues that the EU’s projected identity as a normative power has failed under the weight of systemic conflict, and thus, without a redefined strategic posture, the EU risks marginalisation in an international order increasingly shaped by coercion, confrontation, and force.

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EU Unity, Fragmentation and Its Future in the Russo–Ukraine War

  • Viktor Jakupec

摘要

The European Union (EU) faces a deepening crisis marked by political fragmentation and strategic disorientation amid the ongoing Russo–Ukraine War. Diverging national positions—exemplified by the Franco–British push for military escalation and the Hungary–Slovakia bloc’s support for diplomacy—have exposed the limits of EU unity. This chapter critically examines Ukraine’s marginalisation in US-led negotiations and President Macron’s call for a European military initiative as responses to transatlantic dissonance. Despite imposing multiple sanctions on Russia, the EU’s actions reveal a lack of strategic coherence and reflect deeper institutional shortcomings. Its overreliance on sanctions and failure to formulate credible defence and energy policies highlight a broader erosion of geopolitical agency. As internal challenges intensify and US–EU coordination falters, the EU risks being reduced to a subordinate actor within Western alliances. The chapter argues that the EU’s projected identity as a normative power has failed under the weight of systemic conflict, and thus, without a redefined strategic posture, the EU risks marginalisation in an international order increasingly shaped by coercion, confrontation, and force.