Evaluating the Performance of Financial Policy in Iraq, An Applied Study Using VAR Model
摘要
The effectiveness of the fiscal policy is debated for many years in macroeconomics; however, it has not attracted sufficient attention over the past decades especially in Iraq. Since the fiscal policies are important for stabilizing the economies and are also a source of revenue to the government which affects the total GDP and the living standard, this paper aims to evaluate the performance of fiscal policy for Iraq’s economy. In this regard the Vector Autoregression (VAR) is employed to examine the interrelationships and dynamics among multiple variables over the period of 2014:1M-2022:12M. Applying fiscal policies are investigated through the shocks in taxes and the government expenditures. The findings demonstrate that the expansionary fiscal policies increase economic growth and the contradictory fiscal policies decreases it. To be more concise, a positive shoch to government expenditures expands the economy in the short term while the effects diminished in the long run. Moreover, positive shock in taxes results in an increasing rise of tax revenues of the government. Similarly, the contractionary fiscal policy shows the desired results which negatively affect the GDP in the short run. Generally, the findings of the study show that, that fiscal policies can stimulate economic growth without negatively impacting other variables.