AGI, Governments, and Free Societies
摘要
This chapter explores how artificial general intelligence (AGI)––the theoretical stage of machine learning in which AI systems meet or exceed human capability in most decision-making tasks––could revolutionize both the mechanics and institutions of liberal democracy. Building on Acemoglu and Robinson’s “narrow corridor” framework, we argue that AGI may amplify state capacity while simultaneously empowering non-state actors, potentially pushing societies toward either a “despotic Leviathan” of centralized control or an “absent Leviathan” of institutional breakdown. We show how AGI could reshape governance through three channels: (1) micro-level decisions within government agencies, (2) meso-level organizational structures and machinery of government, and (3) macro-level democratic feedback loops. While AGI promises dramatic gains in government effectiveness, scalability, and cost-efficiency, it also poses acute challenges to transparency, accountability, and human dignity. Using insights from public administration, political science, and recent AI progress, we examine these “artificial bureaucrats” that may soon execute tasks requiring high discretion and moral judgment, which are historically reserved for human officials. We detail failure modes such as alignment drift and power concentration, which risk entrenching authoritarian practices or eroding state legitimacy. To avert these dangers, we propose a governance framework that integrates robust privacy-enhancing technologies, hybrid human-AI institutional designs that preserve democratic oversight, and ethical guardrails for AI-driven public services. Our recommendations emphasize the critical need for proactive regulatory and technical innovations, from mechanistic interpretability of AI systems to frameworks for personal “digital twins” that strengthen civic participation. We conclude that whether AGI ultimately fortifies or undermines liberal democracy depends on how deliberately we structure its deployment. By reimagining core institutions and embracing adaptive governance models, society can harness AGI’s transformative potential while safeguarding the foundational values of freedom, accountability, and human flourishing.