Understanding temperature variability and trends is crucial for assessing climate change impacts on regional hydrology, agriculture, and ecosystems. This study analyzes spatio-temporal temperature variations in the Jaldhaka-Torsa Interfluve, Sub-Himalayan region, North Bengal, India. Non-parametric statistical methods including Mann-Kendall trend test, Sen’s Slope estimator, and Pettitt’s test are applied to long-term temperature data from multiple stations. Maximum temperatures show significant increases in pre-monsoon (0.35 °C per decade) and post-monsoon (0.28 °C per decade) seasons, signaling shifting climatic conditions, while monsoon temperatures remain stable (0.12 °C per decade). Minimum temperatures exhibit strong seasonal variability, with winter lows (mean: 9.8 °C, CV: 15.2%) and stable monsoon values (mean: 24.3 °C, CV: 6.8%). Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope tests confirm rising maximum and minimum temperatures post-change years, notably at urban-influenced stations. Pettitt’s test identifies significant climate-driven change points (1995–2005). These trends have implications for hydrology, agriculture, and ecosystems, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies like sustainable land-use planning and climate-resilient agriculture in Sub-Himalayan North Bengal. Future research should refine climate models for policy-driven decision-making.

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Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Temperature Variability, Trend, and Magnitude Using Non-Parametric Approaches in the Jaldhaka-Torsa Interfluve, Sub-Himalayan North Bengal, India

  • Saidur Rahaman,
  • Snehasish Saha

摘要

Understanding temperature variability and trends is crucial for assessing climate change impacts on regional hydrology, agriculture, and ecosystems. This study analyzes spatio-temporal temperature variations in the Jaldhaka-Torsa Interfluve, Sub-Himalayan region, North Bengal, India. Non-parametric statistical methods including Mann-Kendall trend test, Sen’s Slope estimator, and Pettitt’s test are applied to long-term temperature data from multiple stations. Maximum temperatures show significant increases in pre-monsoon (0.35 °C per decade) and post-monsoon (0.28 °C per decade) seasons, signaling shifting climatic conditions, while monsoon temperatures remain stable (0.12 °C per decade). Minimum temperatures exhibit strong seasonal variability, with winter lows (mean: 9.8 °C, CV: 15.2%) and stable monsoon values (mean: 24.3 °C, CV: 6.8%). Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope tests confirm rising maximum and minimum temperatures post-change years, notably at urban-influenced stations. Pettitt’s test identifies significant climate-driven change points (1995–2005). These trends have implications for hydrology, agriculture, and ecosystems, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies like sustainable land-use planning and climate-resilient agriculture in Sub-Himalayan North Bengal. Future research should refine climate models for policy-driven decision-making.