Epidemiology, Causation and Correlation
摘要
There is a reluctance to properly assess negative results in science in general. While this can be problematic in many areas and even lead to the survival of false theories, it is a particular concern in an area that is as full of complexity and confounders as secondary natural products in foods. While chemistry is very much empirical in nature with an emphasis on testing hypotheses, some of the core directions in secondary natural products have been established on the basis of observation and epidemiology rather than trying to distinguish between causality and correlation. This has led to a growth in nutritional epidemiology and the development of theories based upon dietary patterns rather than the identification of individual components and their interactions. In the case of secondary natural products that occur (and are consumed) in small amounts, there may not even be an identifiable correlation between components and endpoints—far less any causality. One approach is to use the tendency of living systems to drift towards higher entropic states with increasing age and to find a way of measuring the effects of components on ‘entropy inhibition’. Another possibility is to use the principle of quantum entanglement to measure very weak interactions. The complexity of natural products is demonstrated by the S compounds in the genus Allium and Brassica species. While both give rise to a complex range of products, their biogenesis is based on very different principles. Quorum sensing and quorum quenching are biological endpoints that may amplify the effects of natural products and make them easier to detect.