The shift to renewable energy technologiesTechnology depends heavily on critical minerals, such as copperCopper. Experts predict that copper demandCopper demand will soon exceed the currentCurrent supplySupply, potentially leading to a significant supplySupply–demandDemand gap in the coming decades. To address this gap, governments around the world have enacted policies to promote the exploration and development of new mines. Additionally, some governments have introduced or proposed policies, such as subsidies and tariffs, to further incentivize and expand the production of domestic copperCopper. These policies may lead to changes in the distributionDistribution of the copperCopper supplySupply chain and differences in regional prices of copperCopper. This study builds upon an existing modelModel of critical minerals supplySupply evolution that integrates price feedback and mineMine operationOperation decisions by expanding the modelModel’s capacity to analyze short-run supplySupply risks. A “marginal pricing” approach is developed for metalsMetal supplySupply modelingModeling where mineMine-level opening, closing, and production decisions are made based on the “margin” between the currentCurrent commodity price and the mineMine’s operating and capital costs. “Marginal pricing” can be applied to analyze various short-run scenarios, particularly public policies aimed at incentivizing domestic sourcing of critical materialsCritical materials.