Mineral discoveries are a critical outcome of exploration activities, shaping the future availability of non-renewable resources. While prior research emphasizes the importance of geological potential and institutional quality in exploration decisions, empirical analysesAnalysis of the determinants of exploration success remain limited. This study examines the drivers of mineral discoveries using data on goldGold and copperCopper deposits alongside national-level exploration expenditures. Results reveal that exploration budgets are the primary determinant of success, while institutional quality has minimal direct impact when budgets are accounted for. Notably, findings suggest risk-seeking behavior among exploration firms, as rising marginal discovery costs exceed commodity prices. These insights underscore the need for better strategies and coordination in exploration stages to ensure the long-term availabilityLong-term availability of minerals.