This chapter analyzes the effect that nuclear armament has on decision-making in geopolitical conflicts. This is done by assessing the theory of nuclear deterrence using non-cooperative game theory, thereby focusing on the effect of threat credibility and capability. To do so, a brief overview of the current situation of nuclear-armed actors worldwide is provided. This is followed by a short introduction of game theory, a mathematical theory to model individual rational behavior. This theory is then applied to model a conventional conflict in the first step and then expanded to a nuclear conflict in the second step. From this, the chapter attempts to answer whether nuclear weapons can reduce military conflicts.

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Game Theoretical Considerations of Nuclear Armament

  • Gero Scheck

摘要

This chapter analyzes the effect that nuclear armament has on decision-making in geopolitical conflicts. This is done by assessing the theory of nuclear deterrence using non-cooperative game theory, thereby focusing on the effect of threat credibility and capability. To do so, a brief overview of the current situation of nuclear-armed actors worldwide is provided. This is followed by a short introduction of game theory, a mathematical theory to model individual rational behavior. This theory is then applied to model a conventional conflict in the first step and then expanded to a nuclear conflict in the second step. From this, the chapter attempts to answer whether nuclear weapons can reduce military conflicts.