EU-Western Balkans Future Relations: Realist Scenarios (Geopolitical Partial Enlargement and Geopolitical Full Enlargement)
摘要
This chapter examines realist scenarios (Geopolitical Partial Enlargement and Geopolitical Full Enlargement) concerning the future relations between the EU and the Western Balkans over the next 5–10 years. A follow-up analysis in this chapter is based on the analytical framework outlined in Chap. 2 of this book. In doing so, this chapter focuses on: (a) the EU’s capability to formulate policies and utilise policy instruments in the six Western Balkan states to shape the outcomes of the ‘realist scenarios’ for future EU-Western Balkans relations; and (b) the implications for the EU and Western Balkans if either of the ‘realist scenarios’ will shape these relations in the next 5–10 years. Hence, this chapter critically assesses the EU-Western Balkans relations from a theoretically informed perspective, within the context of both ‘realist scenarios’, thus highlighting the potential routes that could evolve over the next 5–10 years, supposing that one of these scenarios prevails during this period.