In recent years, the phenomenon of “high house prices” in some cities in China has attracted attention, and the problem of housing prices in developed coastal cities is particularly prominent. There is still much room for discussion on the impact of housing prices on a region’s imports and exports. At the city level, there is indeed a positive correlation between high house prices and foreign trade, but does this mean that high house prices can really boost local foreign trade? In this paper, we use the statistical yearbook of Guangdong Province for the ten-year period from 2009 to 2018 and data from CEIC on 21 cities in Guangdong Province to test the mechanism of the influence of house prices on Guangdong’s import and export trade through regression models. The regression results show that high housing prices increase the labour and land costs of foreign trade enterprises and discourage consumption by local residents, thus negatively affecting both export and import trade activities in the region, with the negative impact on exports being more pronounced. Based on the above findings, the paper makes several policy recommendations.

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An Analysis of the Impact of Housing Prices on Import and Export Trade

  • Yiting Chen,
  • Xu Huang,
  • Qian Liu

摘要

In recent years, the phenomenon of “high house prices” in some cities in China has attracted attention, and the problem of housing prices in developed coastal cities is particularly prominent. There is still much room for discussion on the impact of housing prices on a region’s imports and exports. At the city level, there is indeed a positive correlation between high house prices and foreign trade, but does this mean that high house prices can really boost local foreign trade? In this paper, we use the statistical yearbook of Guangdong Province for the ten-year period from 2009 to 2018 and data from CEIC on 21 cities in Guangdong Province to test the mechanism of the influence of house prices on Guangdong’s import and export trade through regression models. The regression results show that high housing prices increase the labour and land costs of foreign trade enterprises and discourage consumption by local residents, thus negatively affecting both export and import trade activities in the region, with the negative impact on exports being more pronounced. Based on the above findings, the paper makes several policy recommendations.