“Hybrid threats” describes a complex strategy combining military tools with unconventional methods, ranging from economic and energy-related pressure to spreading disinformation. In the Baltics, we understand that addressing hybrid threats is a continuous, never-ending process centred around developing resilience at the societal, national, European, and trans-Atlantic levels. Hybrid threats are constantly changing and evolving, necessitating an equally dynamic response. Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, many observers anticipated that Russia’s pressure on Ukraine would resemble the hybrid tactics observed in 2014. With the Russian-Ukrainian frontline nearly stagnant, the peace settlement is not progressing despite U.S. engagement, and Russia’s efforts yielding limited results despite enormous casualty rates and physical destruction, the prospects of a prolonged conflict have become apparent. Indeed, Russia is unable to achieve its initial goals in Ukraine, and the Kremlin is now preparing for a long battle both on the frontline and beyond. Consequently, Russia’s use of hybrid strategies, alongside military ones, has become more evident. Moreover, Russia’s application of hybrid threats in the Baltics is expected to increase. This article examines cases relevant to the three Baltic States, overviews the main characteristics of hybrid threats, and highlights several dilemmas that democratic states, regardless of size, face while countering hybrid threats.

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Understanding the Resilience to Hybrid Threats in the Baltics

  • Eitvydas Bajarūnas

摘要

“Hybrid threats” describes a complex strategy combining military tools with unconventional methods, ranging from economic and energy-related pressure to spreading disinformation. In the Baltics, we understand that addressing hybrid threats is a continuous, never-ending process centred around developing resilience at the societal, national, European, and trans-Atlantic levels. Hybrid threats are constantly changing and evolving, necessitating an equally dynamic response. Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, many observers anticipated that Russia’s pressure on Ukraine would resemble the hybrid tactics observed in 2014. With the Russian-Ukrainian frontline nearly stagnant, the peace settlement is not progressing despite U.S. engagement, and Russia’s efforts yielding limited results despite enormous casualty rates and physical destruction, the prospects of a prolonged conflict have become apparent. Indeed, Russia is unable to achieve its initial goals in Ukraine, and the Kremlin is now preparing for a long battle both on the frontline and beyond. Consequently, Russia’s use of hybrid strategies, alongside military ones, has become more evident. Moreover, Russia’s application of hybrid threats in the Baltics is expected to increase. This article examines cases relevant to the three Baltic States, overviews the main characteristics of hybrid threats, and highlights several dilemmas that democratic states, regardless of size, face while countering hybrid threats.