Voter turnout in the 2024 General Election was 53.85%, which was 2.08 percentage points lower than the 2021 General Election. Given that the number of eligible citizens is approximately 100 million in the recent national elections in Japan, the drop in turnout might occur because approximately 2 million people who voted in 2021 decided not to vote in 2024, while all other people made the same decision in 2021 and 2024. Alternatively, the drop might occur because there were more people who voted in 2021 but abstained in 2024 than those who abstained in 2021 but voted in 2024, while all others made the same decision in the two elections. Since voter turnout fluctuates across elections, it is essential to understand the factors that drive the change in people’s decisions from turnout to abstention or vice versa.