This study examines the spatial dependence of extreme rainfall events in West Africa using copula models. The results indicate that the Frank copula provides the best fit for capturing dependencies between extreme rainfall extremes across Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Return level estimates for 10-year, 20-year, and 50-year extreme rainfall events indicate substantial interdependencies among the studied regions, with the highest estimated return levels reaching up to 280 mm in some locations. These findings highlight the necessity of incorporating joint dependence structures in climate risk assessment and adaptation planning in the Sahel region.

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Modeling the Spatial Dependence of Extreme Rainfall Events in West Africa: A Copula Approach for Estimating Return Levels

  • Remi Guillaume Bagré

摘要

This study examines the spatial dependence of extreme rainfall events in West Africa using copula models. The results indicate that the Frank copula provides the best fit for capturing dependencies between extreme rainfall extremes across Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Return level estimates for 10-year, 20-year, and 50-year extreme rainfall events indicate substantial interdependencies among the studied regions, with the highest estimated return levels reaching up to 280 mm in some locations. These findings highlight the necessity of incorporating joint dependence structures in climate risk assessment and adaptation planning in the Sahel region.