Zambia’s energy landscape hinges heavily on hydropower, with the iconic Kariba Dam as its bedrock. While the Kariba North Bank Extension (KNBE) power station exemplifies the potential of this approach, its dependence on Kariba’s water levels raises critical questions about sustainability. This study critically examines the KNBE project and its implications for Zambia’s long-term energy security, focusing on the inherent risks and potential strategies for diversification. Utilising qualitative analysis of policy documents, literature, and available data, the study delves into Zambia’s energy landscape through the lens of risk and resilience. The KNBE project completion boosted generation capacity and contributed to economic development, but Zambia’s hydropower dependence exposes vulnerabilities. Erratic rainfall and climate change threaten Kariba’s water levels, jeopardising energy security. While thermal and renewable options offer diversification, challenges like the environmental impacts of regional electricity trade infrastructure and the potential return of load shedding necessitate urgent exploration of sustainable solutions beyond hydropower. The study findings recommend mitigation of these risks and transition to a resilient future. This includes investing in renewables like solar and wind, alongside responsible exploration of thermal options. So is, optimising Kariba Dam and mitigating rainfall risks. Zambia should consider sustainable hydropower and shared water resource management in the Zambezi River basin and invest in continuous research and development by exploring innovative energy solutions and enhancing efficiency. While KNBE represents a milestone, Zambia’s energy future demands a multi-faceted approach that acknowledges inherent risks and actively pursues diversification. By embracing these recommendations, Zambia can navigate the undercurrents of a changing climate and secure a sustainable energy future. While data limitations necessitate further quantitative research to validate and refine findings, this study lays the groundwork for a comprehensive and resilient energy future for Zambia.

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Navigating the Undercurrents: Risks and Resilience in Zambia’s Hydropower-Dominated Energy Landscape

  • Katlego T. Majola,
  • Francis Ziba

摘要

Zambia’s energy landscape hinges heavily on hydropower, with the iconic Kariba Dam as its bedrock. While the Kariba North Bank Extension (KNBE) power station exemplifies the potential of this approach, its dependence on Kariba’s water levels raises critical questions about sustainability. This study critically examines the KNBE project and its implications for Zambia’s long-term energy security, focusing on the inherent risks and potential strategies for diversification. Utilising qualitative analysis of policy documents, literature, and available data, the study delves into Zambia’s energy landscape through the lens of risk and resilience. The KNBE project completion boosted generation capacity and contributed to economic development, but Zambia’s hydropower dependence exposes vulnerabilities. Erratic rainfall and climate change threaten Kariba’s water levels, jeopardising energy security. While thermal and renewable options offer diversification, challenges like the environmental impacts of regional electricity trade infrastructure and the potential return of load shedding necessitate urgent exploration of sustainable solutions beyond hydropower. The study findings recommend mitigation of these risks and transition to a resilient future. This includes investing in renewables like solar and wind, alongside responsible exploration of thermal options. So is, optimising Kariba Dam and mitigating rainfall risks. Zambia should consider sustainable hydropower and shared water resource management in the Zambezi River basin and invest in continuous research and development by exploring innovative energy solutions and enhancing efficiency. While KNBE represents a milestone, Zambia’s energy future demands a multi-faceted approach that acknowledges inherent risks and actively pursues diversification. By embracing these recommendations, Zambia can navigate the undercurrents of a changing climate and secure a sustainable energy future. While data limitations necessitate further quantitative research to validate and refine findings, this study lays the groundwork for a comprehensive and resilient energy future for Zambia.