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This recipe illustrates the Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting (PTF), an application of the ingredients more commonly used for long-term PTHA to the case of tsunami warning. This PTF recipe regards tsunamis generated by earthquake sources, which are characterised through both fault and earthquake catalogues. Source probabilities are finally combined with the output of numerical tsunami simulations. PTF output is the probability distribution of tsunami intensity at given forecast points.

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R22—Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting for Tsunami Warning

  • 章节

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Stefano Lorito,
  • Jacopo Selva

摘要

This recipe illustrates the Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting (PTF), an application of the ingredients more commonly used for long-term PTHA to the case of tsunami warning. This PTF recipe regards tsunamis generated by earthquake sources, which are characterised through both fault and earthquake catalogues. Source probabilities are finally combined with the output of numerical tsunami simulations. PTF output is the probability distribution of tsunami intensity at given forecast points.