The Comprehensive Method for Project Risk Assessment Based on Fuzzy Sets
摘要
Project implementation is often influenced by factors of instability in the external and internal environment that require a quick response. Therefore, the processes associated with risk assessment, which are the subject of this study, are becoming increasingly important. The problem of this study is to increase the efficiency of projects in the face of risks through the prompt development and adoption of effective management decisions. For projects, it is necessary not only to identify the current situation as risky, but also to identify rational ways to achieve project goals in a crisis. Therefore, a comprehensive method of project risk assessment based on a combination of mathematical, intelligent, and expert methods, is proposed. Difficult external circumstances are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty and do not always contribute to the successful implementation of a project. Therefore, this method of project risk assessment provides prompt and accurate information about the factors that influence the occurrence of a risk event. A model of the risk index has been devised, which would allow to quantify the causal relationship between risk and the factors that generate. This will facilitate the adoption of appropriate and effective decisions aimed at the factor before the risk event occurs, as well as the avoidance of future risk situations. The result of applying this method is an increase in project efficiency by 1.52% by meeting time constraints, reducing cost overruns and project losses, and increasing teamwork productivity.