This chapter shows the ways to implement statistical prediction. The starting point for statistical time series forecasting is ARIMA, we introduce the automatic order selection function auto.arima(), a routine offered by package forecast. Besides ARIMA, this chapter also includes several nonlinear time series models, for example, self-exciting threshold autoregression. We also detail the procedure to generate multistep forecasts and onestep ahead forecast.

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Predictive Time Series Modeling

  • Tsung-wu Ho

摘要

This chapter shows the ways to implement statistical prediction. The starting point for statistical time series forecasting is ARIMA, we introduce the automatic order selection function auto.arima(), a routine offered by package forecast. Besides ARIMA, this chapter also includes several nonlinear time series models, for example, self-exciting threshold autoregression. We also detail the procedure to generate multistep forecasts and onestep ahead forecast.