Spain’s Wine Industry and Climate Change: Past Trends, Present Challenges, and Future Scenarios to 2050
摘要
Spain is the world’s third-largest wine producer and the country with the most extensive vineyard area globally. Beyond its deep-rooted cultural heritage—shaped by a gastronomic tradition inherited from the ancient Greeks and Romans—the wine industry plays a crucial role in the country’s economic and social fabric. Simultaneously, Spain ranks as the second most visited country in the world, welcoming 85 million international tourists in 2023 (Datosmacro, Datos sobre turismo. Available at: https://datosmacro.expansion.com/comercio/turismo-internacional , 2024), with tourism contributing approximately 15% of the national GDP (DataEstur, Estadísticas Españolas sobre Turismo. Available at: https://www.dataestur.es/ , 2024). The intersection of these two industries positions it among the top three global destinations for wine tourism. This chapter provides an overview of the current state of Spain’s wine industry and wine tourism, drawing on bibliographic sources and secondary data. Using foresight methodology and systematic horizon scanning, we identify key drivers of change across economic, political, ecological, cultural, security, and technological dimensions. Through structured scenario analysis, we design four distinct future scenarios for 2050, shaped by the interplay between technological adoption and regulatory frameworks. These scenarios, derived from systems theory, explore how policy adaptation strategies could address challenges posed by digitalization, shifting consumer lifestyles, and climate change. Rather than attempting to predict the industry’s future, this study aims to reflect on potential alternative business models that could emerge in response to these evolving social and technological dynamics, providing strategic insights for industry stakeholders and policymakers.