As climate change increases the threat of weather-related disasters, the importance of weather control research is growing. The goal of weather control is to mitigate disaster risks by applying interventions with optimal timing, location, and intensity. This study considers a simulation-based control framework in which interventions in the wind velocity field serve as inputs and accumulated precipitation as the output. The objective is to identify optimal interventions that minimize total precipitation. However, the optimization process is highly challenging due to the vast scale and complexity of weather phenomena, which introduces two major challenges. First, obtaining accurate gradient information for optimization is difficult. In addition, numerical weather prediction models demand enormous computational resources, necessitating parameter optimization with minimal function evaluations. To address these challenges, this study proposes a method for designing weather interventions based on black-box optimization, which enables efficient exploration without requiring gradient information. The proposed method is evaluated in two distinct control scenarios: one-shot initial value intervention and sequential intervention based on model predictive control. Furthermore, a comparative analysis is conducted among four representative black-box optimization methods in terms of total rainfall reduction. Experimental results show that Bayesian optimization achieves higher control effectiveness than the others, particularly in high-dimensional search spaces. These findings suggest that Bayesian optimization is a highly effective approach for weather intervention computation.

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Comparative Analysis of Black-Box Optimization Methods for Weather Intervention Design

  • Yuta Higuchi,
  • Rikuto Nagai,
  • Atsushi Okazaki,
  • Masaki Ogura,
  • Naoki Wakamiya

摘要

As climate change increases the threat of weather-related disasters, the importance of weather control research is growing. The goal of weather control is to mitigate disaster risks by applying interventions with optimal timing, location, and intensity. This study considers a simulation-based control framework in which interventions in the wind velocity field serve as inputs and accumulated precipitation as the output. The objective is to identify optimal interventions that minimize total precipitation. However, the optimization process is highly challenging due to the vast scale and complexity of weather phenomena, which introduces two major challenges. First, obtaining accurate gradient information for optimization is difficult. In addition, numerical weather prediction models demand enormous computational resources, necessitating parameter optimization with minimal function evaluations. To address these challenges, this study proposes a method for designing weather interventions based on black-box optimization, which enables efficient exploration without requiring gradient information. The proposed method is evaluated in two distinct control scenarios: one-shot initial value intervention and sequential intervention based on model predictive control. Furthermore, a comparative analysis is conducted among four representative black-box optimization methods in terms of total rainfall reduction. Experimental results show that Bayesian optimization achieves higher control effectiveness than the others, particularly in high-dimensional search spaces. These findings suggest that Bayesian optimization is a highly effective approach for weather intervention computation.