Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using CA-Markov Model: A Case Study of Bulandshahr District, India
摘要
Peri-urbanism has gained importance as an important topic for urban planners and policy makers all over the world, but especially in developing countries, where its impact on the physical and social environments is undeniable. Consequently, modeling of land use and land cover (LULC) is a very important tool, particularly in the peri-urban areas. Over the past 20 years, Bulandshahr District has experienced rearrangement of land due to population increase and migration, leading to a significant shift in the district’s land use scenario. In this light, this chapter attempts to analyze the LULC transitions and projections in peri-urban areas of Bulandshahr District of Uttar Pradesh from 1995 to 2022. Furthermore, we predict the land use maps for the years 2025 and 2040 using spatial modeling (Markov Chain and Cellular Automata [CA]) in Land Change Modeler. To attain optimal and superior LULC outcomes in the future, the model was verified by the utilization of Kappa modifications, specifically Kno, Klocation, and Kquantity. This work concludes that an integrated CA-Markov model—a combination of cellular automata and Markov models incorporated with IDRISI software—can be used to predict the spatial-temporal LULC pattern and trends of the Bulandshahr District.