Stability Assessment of Aging Concrete Gravity Dams Under Climate Change
摘要
The impact of climate change on infrastructure, particularly dams, is significant. Studies have shown that Canada is likely to experience more rainfall and severe flooding events in the future, which could increase hydrostatic and sediment loads on existing dams. Moreover, climate change may lead to a more rapid deterioration of concrete dams. For instance, elevated temperatures can cause thermal cracking in concrete due to increased temperature differentials and may also increase the rate of Alkali-Aggregate Reactions. The expected increase in loads and deterioration rates could endanger the structural integrity of aging concrete dams and lead to failures. To date, dams have only been designed for stationary climatic conditions, and the effects of climate change have never been integrated into their design stage. Most dams in Canada were built before the 1960s; therefore, these aging structures do not meet the up-to-date design requirements. Consequently, the safety of existing concrete gravity dams is an ongoing concern for dam owners, as the aging processes can significantly alter their strength and stiffness. Furthermore, the revised projections of the maximum loads associated with severe floods triggered by climate change only add to the urgency of this matter. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct periodic reassessments of the structural stability of aging dams to ensure that they can withstand extreme loads beyond their original design parameters. In this preliminary study, a commercially available computer program was utilized to evaluate the stability of an existing large concrete gravity dam for various water levels. It was found that this computational tool could assist in conducting extensive parametric analyses for aging concrete dams under different extreme events and can be beneficial in evaluating the stability of dams in the face of climate change.