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In this paper, we explore the probability of a full-fledged epidemic in stochastic compartmental models, focusing on the Reed-Frost model. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate such a probability in various scenarios. Drawing on historical examples from science, we demonstrate that our findings apply to innovation diffusion, suggesting that multiple independent introductions may be necessary for an innovation to succeed.

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Innovations and Their Diffusion: An Application of the Reed-Frost Model

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Fabio Rapallo,
  • Enrico Scalas

摘要

In this paper, we explore the probability of a full-fledged epidemic in stochastic compartmental models, focusing on the Reed-Frost model. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate such a probability in various scenarios. Drawing on historical examples from science, we demonstrate that our findings apply to innovation diffusion, suggesting that multiple independent introductions may be necessary for an innovation to succeed.