Uncertainty and Partisan Fertility in Europe
摘要
This study contributes to the emerging field of political demography, advancing our knowledge regarding the determinants of the fertility declines witnessed in Europe in the past decade. In particular, the study investigates the relationship between both the growing levels of global economic and socio-political uncertainty and the increasing political polarization, and childbearing probability in European countries. Leveraging on the large number of countries and years covered by the European Social Survey (ESS) and using logistic regression models, the study analyses the association between the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) and the diffusion of the extreme right political ideology, and the probability that men and women have a child between 2004 and 2023. Results show that, net of individual level socio-demographic determinants, the WUI is not significantly associated with childbirth probability. However, I find that a greater share of respondents identifying with extreme right political ideology in the reference group of the individual is associated with a decline in the probability of having a(nother) child.