Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Existing Building Stock: A Scenario Analysis for the European Union
摘要
The construction sector plays a decisive role worldwide in achieving the global objectives of decarbonizing the economy by 2050, being responsible for 39% of total emissions. In the Global North, the efforts to cut emissions by buildings are currently geared towards drastically reducing energy demand for heating. The European Union, in view of the widespread ageing of the building stock in the Member States, has identified its energy refurbishment as one of the priorities in view of the objectives linked to climate change agreements. Thermal façade insulation solutions offer a great potential for energy savings by significantly reducing heat loss over large areas. However, once the primary energy demand of a building is reduced through retrofitting, the contribution to overall carbon emissions caused by the production processes of insulation materials increases. On a European scale, the demand for building materials to be used in the renovation of the building stock is expected to increase significantly in the coming years; therefore, the carbon emissions generated by material production and construction processes would significantly slow down the desired ecological transition of our society. At the same time, in developing countries of the Global South a huge growth in population has been estimated by 2050, with an increasing demand for new houses and infrastructure. Therefore, the energy needs of countries that need to develop their economies and provide materials for new buildings and infrastructure are likely to dominate global building sector emissions and impact the transition to a zero-carbon society. It is therefore necessary to define a carbon budget for construction and construction-related activities in such a way as to limit emissions in each country and stay within the available global budget limits. In this scenario, the adoption of materials with a low environmental impact and capable of storing carbon in the long term is an opportunity that should be addressed urgently in order to meet climate change mitigation goals.