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An approach is proposed to model the future climate conditions impact on agricultural crop yields. It consists of establishing the dependence of the historical yield of agricultural crop on climatic parameters. Determining such a dependence allows modeling the effects of upcoming climate changes on agricultural crop yields. To develop the model of the impact of climate changes on the of agricultural crop yields we use agrometeorological indicators from the ERA5-Land dataset, which were generated as part of the Copernicus program. Modeling the stochastic impact of climate parameters on crop yield entails building the dependency of the distribution function quantiles on the agrometeorological indicators.

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Mathematical Tools for Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yield

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Volodymyr Pepelyaev,
  • Alexandr Golodnikov,
  • Andriy Panteleymonov

摘要

An approach is proposed to model the future climate conditions impact on agricultural crop yields. It consists of establishing the dependence of the historical yield of agricultural crop on climatic parameters. Determining such a dependence allows modeling the effects of upcoming climate changes on agricultural crop yields. To develop the model of the impact of climate changes on the of agricultural crop yields we use agrometeorological indicators from the ERA5-Land dataset, which were generated as part of the Copernicus program. Modeling the stochastic impact of climate parameters on crop yield entails building the dependency of the distribution function quantiles on the agrometeorological indicators.