Hydroclimatic swings, characterized by abrupt transitions from drought to flood conditions, can lead to severe economic, social, and ecological losses. Hydroclimatic swing events are becoming more common and intense across different regions of North America, this is often attributed to climate change. Internal climate variability is a major source of uncertainty in the detection of emerging climatic trends and must be considered to comprehensively understand how extreme events will change in a warming climate. This study aims to quantify the changing risk of hydroclimatic swing characteristics across North America by examining the influence of anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability. Furthermore, the results will be used to spatially identify regions that are at most risk. A new index is also proposed to simplify quantifying the severity of hydroclimatic swing events. The Canadian Regional Climate Model large ensemble is used to examine the effects of anthropogenic climate change and determine the influence of internal climate variability. The standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index is used to characterize hydroclimatic swing events. Results indicate that hydroclimatic swing events are projected to become more frequent and intense under climate change. The index proposed in this paper is shown to be a useful metric for measuring and communicating event severity.

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Exploring the Characteristics of Hydroclimatic Swing Events Under Climate Change

  • Andrew Grgas-Svirac,
  • Wooyoung Na,
  • Mohammad Reza Najafi

摘要

Hydroclimatic swings, characterized by abrupt transitions from drought to flood conditions, can lead to severe economic, social, and ecological losses. Hydroclimatic swing events are becoming more common and intense across different regions of North America, this is often attributed to climate change. Internal climate variability is a major source of uncertainty in the detection of emerging climatic trends and must be considered to comprehensively understand how extreme events will change in a warming climate. This study aims to quantify the changing risk of hydroclimatic swing characteristics across North America by examining the influence of anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability. Furthermore, the results will be used to spatially identify regions that are at most risk. A new index is also proposed to simplify quantifying the severity of hydroclimatic swing events. The Canadian Regional Climate Model large ensemble is used to examine the effects of anthropogenic climate change and determine the influence of internal climate variability. The standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index is used to characterize hydroclimatic swing events. Results indicate that hydroclimatic swing events are projected to become more frequent and intense under climate change. The index proposed in this paper is shown to be a useful metric for measuring and communicating event severity.