Summertime severe weather events, particularly hailstorms, pose significant threats with the potential for devastating impacts, especially when accompanied by strong wind extremes in Alberta. The intensification of hail momentum and damage to property and infrastructure stress the importance of expanding our understanding the interdependencies and joint behavior of these hazards for effective risk mitigation. In this study, we undertake a multivariate probabilistic assessment of concurrent hail and wind gust extremes over Alberta’s “hail alley.” Leveraging radar and ground-based observations, our analysis explores individual hazards, as well as joint scenarios, utilizing the copula approach. Quantifying individual and joint return periods (JPRs) for various scenarios reveals that the conventional approach, assuming independence between different hazards, consistently underestimates the JRP of wind-driven hail emphasizing the importance of understanding these interactions for accurate risk assessment. These analyses are crucial for developing effective risk management strategies, enhancing resilience in urban areas and agriculture.

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Investigating the Behavior of Wind-Driven Hail Events in Alberta, Canada

  • Issam Mohamed,
  • Mohammad Reza Najafi,
  • Paul Joe,
  • Julian Brimelow

摘要

Summertime severe weather events, particularly hailstorms, pose significant threats with the potential for devastating impacts, especially when accompanied by strong wind extremes in Alberta. The intensification of hail momentum and damage to property and infrastructure stress the importance of expanding our understanding the interdependencies and joint behavior of these hazards for effective risk mitigation. In this study, we undertake a multivariate probabilistic assessment of concurrent hail and wind gust extremes over Alberta’s “hail alley.” Leveraging radar and ground-based observations, our analysis explores individual hazards, as well as joint scenarios, utilizing the copula approach. Quantifying individual and joint return periods (JPRs) for various scenarios reveals that the conventional approach, assuming independence between different hazards, consistently underestimates the JRP of wind-driven hail emphasizing the importance of understanding these interactions for accurate risk assessment. These analyses are crucial for developing effective risk management strategies, enhancing resilience in urban areas and agriculture.