Earthquakes, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are commonly recognized as Himalayan natural hazards. Earthquakes originate from active mountain-building processes in the Himalaya, and as the Himalayan foreland is one of Earth’s most densely populated regions, a large or great earthquake today will likely result in a significant loss of life and property. Prediction of earthquakes in time is an elusive goal at present. The only realistic option is strengthening existing commercial and residential infrastructure and ensuring that all future constructions can survive great earthquakes. The second significant Himalayan natural hazard is landslides. Monsoonal rains are the primary trigger for the Himalayan landslides. However, high topographic slopes and brittle fault-related deformation are critical factors contributing to Himalayan slope failure. Topographic slope growth results from neotectonics, and the internal architecture of brittle fault zones controls the strength of the fault rocks. The rocks in the brittle fault core and damage zone are fractured, and their grain size and strength are reduced. These regions are most susceptible to slope failure during and after the monsoon. Therefore, identifying and strengthening fault-affected and induced slopes is required to minimize the Himalayan landslide hazard. Changes in the Himalayan climate in response to Global warming have caused an increase in the melting and retreat of the Himalayan glaciers. When glaciers retreat, moraine-dammed glacier lakes develop and fill up. These lakes are the source of glacial lake outburst floods due to moraine dam failure. GLOFs result in catastrophic flooding downstream, with significant geomorphic and socioeconomic impacts. The worst-case natural hazard scenario in the Himalayas will involve large coeval earthquakes, landslides, and GLOF events. Himalayan natural hazard models must integrate seismic, landslides, and GLOF hazards for any realistic forecast of disasters and disaster preparedness. This chapter discusses the Himalayan integrated hazards scenario using the Darjiling-Sikkim Himalaya as an example and emphasizes that the scenario is relevant to the entire Himalayas.

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Integrated Natural Hazards in the Himalaya: Insights from the Darjiling-Sikkim Himalaya

  • Malay Mukul,
  • Vinee Srivastava,
  • Manas Mukul

摘要

Earthquakes, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are commonly recognized as Himalayan natural hazards. Earthquakes originate from active mountain-building processes in the Himalaya, and as the Himalayan foreland is one of Earth’s most densely populated regions, a large or great earthquake today will likely result in a significant loss of life and property. Prediction of earthquakes in time is an elusive goal at present. The only realistic option is strengthening existing commercial and residential infrastructure and ensuring that all future constructions can survive great earthquakes. The second significant Himalayan natural hazard is landslides. Monsoonal rains are the primary trigger for the Himalayan landslides. However, high topographic slopes and brittle fault-related deformation are critical factors contributing to Himalayan slope failure. Topographic slope growth results from neotectonics, and the internal architecture of brittle fault zones controls the strength of the fault rocks. The rocks in the brittle fault core and damage zone are fractured, and their grain size and strength are reduced. These regions are most susceptible to slope failure during and after the monsoon. Therefore, identifying and strengthening fault-affected and induced slopes is required to minimize the Himalayan landslide hazard. Changes in the Himalayan climate in response to Global warming have caused an increase in the melting and retreat of the Himalayan glaciers. When glaciers retreat, moraine-dammed glacier lakes develop and fill up. These lakes are the source of glacial lake outburst floods due to moraine dam failure. GLOFs result in catastrophic flooding downstream, with significant geomorphic and socioeconomic impacts. The worst-case natural hazard scenario in the Himalayas will involve large coeval earthquakes, landslides, and GLOF events. Himalayan natural hazard models must integrate seismic, landslides, and GLOF hazards for any realistic forecast of disasters and disaster preparedness. This chapter discusses the Himalayan integrated hazards scenario using the Darjiling-Sikkim Himalaya as an example and emphasizes that the scenario is relevant to the entire Himalayas.